Proclaiming that OpenStack is dead would be ignoring rich history of failed technologies. It is extremely rare that a technology fails outright and goes out of fashion overnight. While all indications point to OpenStack as a failure, it won’t disappear overnight. It will stay on. It will even get used in few enterprises.

Personally, I keep losing interest in OpenStack day by day, so its unlikely I would follow it too closely in the future, except for humor. With that, I want to make few predictions on what will happen with OpenStack.

  1. It will stay alive

There will be investment from large companies that flows into foundation and twice a year boondoggles at exotic locations. The reason for this is simple. OpenStack allows execs at large tech companies to make case for more budgets by positioning it as their only chance to fight Amazon threat ( a false premise, btw ).

2. OpenStack will become set of components

Professional service teams at large vendors love OpenStack because of its complexity and ease of use with which they can bill their customers millions of dollars. In fact, OpenStack proservices will be seen as a very lucrative business in the short term for legacy tech companies.

3. Smart guys will abandon it increasingly

Smart guys that want to work on solving real customer problems will abandon OpenStack and move onto other things. We have already seen some evidence of it during Vancouver summit with at least one key guy declaring that its his last summit ever. In private conversations, some of the people say that OpenStack is beyond rescuing.

4. Passion will turn into posturing

Some people had high level of passion for OpenStack till 2014. This will turn into posturing to argue their mothership has best Openstack distribution or services and also to use this to survive in the politics of large companies.

5. There is still plenty of opportunity to do an OS startup, sell it to large companies for next 3–5 yrs.

“There is a corp dev guy born every minute”

If you want to build a small company around OpenStack offering services and get sold to a large company, the opportunity still exists. Just be smart about how you build the company. Keep the burn rate low and have enough revenue coming in to stay afloat till a large company gets interested in you.

Parody + Tech commentary.

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